The Future of the EU

Upheaval, collapse, of a continuation?

By Caspar Kramer

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Europe (EU) is in the biggest crisis since its foundation. Everything it stands for is in question. When solidarity and European integration are no longer in the basic understanding of the citizens of this Union and the Union itself disregards them, the "European project" has been stripped of the basis of its existence.

The vote of the British on June 23, 2016 to leave the EU was the first painfully visible and frightening symptom of weakness and mistrust in the European Union for all. Yet all seemed well since the entry of ten new member states in 2004 (the EU now has 28 members) and the very strong European economy. Europe was, and to some extent still is, a role model in every respect. It was the strongest economy until 2010 and also in terms of spreading European values, namely respect for human rights and democracy, which are, after all, the same as the American model, Europe was ahead of the USA as the ideal (the USA was struggling with the aftermath of the 2nd Gulf War). However, the Union has partially betrayed its values in the eyes of many, especially through its behavior during the refugee crisis and through relations with autocrats such as Erdogan or the leadership of China. Some of its member states are not only experiencing a political shift to the right, but some are even turning into authoritarian systems.

A "business as usual" in Europe, it becomes apparent when reading the above facts, is not an option. In a world full of autocrats, an economically and politically weakened Europe cannot sustain itself. Increasing dependence on China and other factors would make Europe unattractive as a location for both production and corporate headquarters.

Politically, however, it would become even more critical. The shift to the right in member states would probably not abate. Parties like the PIS in Poland, the FPÖ in Austria and the AfD in Germany would continue to polarize against the idea of Europe and thus win over even more voters. Even if such populist parties are not involved in governments, they could paralyze the EU from within, from the EU Parliament. This scenario is quite possible for me due to the poor representation of the EU and the low contact with the citizens.

So a "collapse" and a "business as usual" end up with the same result: the destruction of the European idea, of the future. This would also have global consequences. Autocrats would feel strengthened and further restrict democracy, freedom and human rights based on the example of the failed Europe. New alliances worldwide with similar, for us fundamental, democratic and liberal goals would possibly no longer come about due to this experience. As an example of functioning democracy and equality, Europe would cease to exist. "Remaining" would then (still) be the USA.

As the only possibility to save Europe, now only the upheaval remains. The EU must reform itself from within. It must appear stronger inside and outside the EU and, above all, stand up for its ideals. Most importantly, however, it must be present in Europe and allow itself to be shaped by the nearly 447 million Europeans.

The EU must become more credible - both internally and externally. Restoring credibility within the EU is possible through some legislative changes. Violations of the European constitution by member states must be punished consistently and much more severely than is the case now, with the cancellation of EU funds and otherwise possible exclusion from the EU (Schengen Agreement, ...). In order to decide on sanctions, one would also have to form an independent body, a kind of court. This would prevent the coverage of different states in the European Council (e.g. Poland and Hungary). In this way, member states that refuse to implement EU decisions could be punished more severely, and this could also be used as a preventive measure. Problems such as the refugee crisis could be solved more easily, since states could still refuse to accept refugees, but would be subject to much greater pressure. In this case, the countries concerned would probably not refuse to take in refugees completely, as these mostly former "Eastern Bloc" states are particularly dependent on EU funds (there also needs to be control of the funds in terms of use to prevent misappropriation).

Externally, the EU must reform itself. It must no longer be just a union that can be humiliated without suffering any consequences. The EU's reaction to the Sofagate affair alone has shown this. The EU must stand up for its values, even if this means possible economic loss. Economic loss is far more bearable than the loss of trust of some parts of the population. In order for the EU to be able to present itself globally and to protect itself and others with its own troops, one should also think about an own European army. This would give the EU room for maneuver for operations inside and outside of NATO. It would also strengthen the contact between EU citizens. In its foreign policy, as already mentioned, the EU must also pay attention to the observance of human rights, whether in trade with non-EU countries or the protection of the external border by the border protection agency Frontex.

Most importantly, however, the EU needs to get closer to its citizens. This is the only way to take away their "fear" of it. This can be done either through more Direct Democracy or more and above all more popular forums. A good example of a forum is the Conference on the Future of Europe. This was opened for the exchange of EU citizens about the future of Europe. One should organize more such conferences and bring them closer to the citizens, i.e. advertise them more. Also a kind of citizens council of EU citizens is in my opinion well conceivable and would strengthen the confidence of the EU population. Only through such involvement can the "fear" of the EU be taken away from the citizens of the EU.

The EU is currently in its greatest crisis, but its situation is not hopeless. If it makes an effort and, above all, fights the distrust of its own population in it more strongly, it has the chance to survive and even to find a way back to its old strength.

edited and translated by Darryl Weng